Understanding market prices

Prices reflect the probability of an event happening, based on current trading activity.

For example:

In this market “Will the US FOMC keep the interest rate unchanged?”, if ‘Yes’ shares are priced at 65c, that suggests a 65% chance that the Federal Reserve will not change the interest rate. Similarly, if the price of ‘Yes’ shares is 10c, it indicates only a 10% probability of no rate change.

You can also express your position through ‘No’ shares. For instance, if ‘No’ shares are priced at 80c, that suggests an 80% chance that the FOMC will change the interest rate.